Healthcare AI
A doctor seeing a patient has access to a chart, a history, and twenty minutes. An AI system trained on millions of patient records can detect patterns no individual clinician could hold in mind: who is likely to deteriorate in the next 24 hours, who will be readmitted within a month, when a patient is nearing the end of life and may benefit from a different kind of care. When done right, the use of AI can greatly improve health care outcomes.
A few weeks after we deployed a patient prioritization system at a large inner-city hospital, I went back to ask the staff whether it was working. The system predicted which patients in the emergency waiting area were at risk of leaving before being seen (what hospitals call LWBS). It is a quiet crisis: a patient who walks out unexamined often returns sicker.
I asked one of the check-in staff, the person who greets patients when they arrive, what she thought. She said: "I know it works. The other day I was looking at the dashboard and a patient's name jumped to the top of the priority queue. I went over to her and said, 'Ma'am, you don't have to wait. We are prioritizing you. You are next.' She looked at me and said, 'I'm glad you said that, because I was about to get up and leave.'"
That patient stayed. She was seen.
AI systems built through this work are currently deployed across multiple major health systems, reaching approximately 2.5 million patients. These systems are embedded directly in EHR workflows where physicians and nurses see predictions as they care for patients, and in operational platforms used by care coordinators and hospital administrators to manage capacity, flow, and risk. I have led teams that predict treatment response, optimize care pathways, and surface signals of patient deterioration and potential complications earlier than traditional clinical detection. The end users span the full clinical spectrum: bedside physicians making treatment decisions, nurses acting on deterioration alerts, care coordinators managing high-risk populations, and operations teams using simulation to plan capacity and staffing.
My work builds and deploys predictive models in live clinical environments, from pediatric ICUs to emergency departments to post-surgical recovery units. Previous work spans disease prediction, including pressure injury (Ahmad et al., 2021), diabetes onset and progression (Lim et al., 2021), readmission risk (Eckert et al., 2019), surgical outcomes (Lammers et al., 2021), and end-of-life trajectories (Ahmad et al., 2018), patient flow optimization (Padthe et al., 2021; Eckert et al., 2018), fraud and waste detection in healthcare systems (Liu et al., 2018), and algorithmic guidance for implantable cardiac devices (Mahajan et al., 2013). A parallel thread uses simulation to build digital twins of hospital systems (Ahmad et al., 2023): computational replicas of wards and patient flows that let administrators test interventions before implementing them. What if we added two nurses to the overnight shift? What happens to patient wait times if we open a new intake bay? A digital twin answers those questions safely, in simulation. Recent work has extended into algorithmic nudging (how subtle AI suggestions can steer patient behavior and improve health outcomes at scale) and the application of large language models in electronic health records to enhance clinical insight generation and mental health support (Jaiswal et al., 2024). Several of these models have been prospectively validated in live clinical environments: predictions generated on real patients, tracked against real outcomes.
Throughout this work, I hold myself to a standard beyond accuracy: a model deployed in a hospital must be equitable across patient populations, legible to the clinicians using it, robust under distribution shift, and risk-sensitive to rare high-impact events (Preuett et al., 2025). In end-of-life contexts specifically, fairness extends beyond demographic parity: it encompasses moral representation and fidelity to the patient's values, relationships, and worldview (Ahmad, 2025).
In clinical prediction, models for readmission risk, length of stay, discharge disposition, and left-without-being-seen have been deployed across multiple health systems with documented cost savings of $10M+ at multiple sites, a 12% reduction in 30-day readmission rates at a large California health system, and a 7% reduction in average length of stay. Emergency department arrival forecasting, using clustering and phenotyping to identify variability in patient flow, reduced wait times by 50% and LWBS rates by one-third. Trauma ICU deterioration and recovery prediction, including modeling of resilience in patients with chronic critical illness, improved time to intervention by 9% at a hospital in the northeast. COVID-19 and influenza forecasting (3–4 week horizon) is currently deployed and in active use for health system planning.
On the operational side, cascading machine learning and simulation models inform resource allocation, staffing, and long-term financial planning across health system operations, with documented savings of $9 million. Unsupervised ML on high-dimensional claims data identified $7.9 million in unwarranted cost variation across provider networks by automatically extracting peer reference groups and flagging high-cost outliers. Fraud detection using supervised, semi-supervised, and unsupervised methods identified $12.3 million in fraudulent activity in a large healthcare system. Lifetime healthcare cost modeling for first responders and families with aerodigestive disease and lung cancer risk improved aggregate prediction by $2.9 million over baseline methods.
At the population scale, care deferral prediction for vulnerable populations and patients with chronic conditions reduced deferral rates by 10%, with documented savings of $7.5 million over a decade. Nudge-based recommendation systems built on knowledge graph foundation models operate at scale to improve health outcomes. Lead a team that built generative AI systems to extract actionable insights from EHRs and longitudinal healthcare data for executives, case managers, physicians, and nurse practitioners; separate models for treatment response prediction, care pathway optimization, and early detection of patient deterioration and complications are in active clinical use.
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For research collaboration, reach me at maahmad@uw.edu. For health system partnerships, clinical AI deployment inquiries, or advisory engagements, reach me at vonaurum@gmail.com.